김정은 시대 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략(증보판)

임성재

저

(주)박영사

출판

5.76

ISBN 9791130387147 (95390)
출간일 2024-10-31
263

소장	16,200스콘 10

작품 소개

증보판 2024.07.25

초판 2023.03.02

개정증보판을 내면서

북한의 김정은은 2024년 1월 개최된 최고인민회의 제14기 10차 회의에서 “대한민국을 제1의 적대국, 불변의 주적으로 간주한다.”라고 공언했다. 또한, 김여정은 2023년 3월 미국의 ‘북한 ICBM 태평양 발사 시 격추’ 발언에 대해 “요격하면 선전포고로 간주하겠다.”고 언급하였다. 최근에는 각종 오물과 쓰레기를 담은 풍선 1,000여 개를 우리 지역에 살포하는 등 북한의 대남위협이 노골화하고 있다.

북한의 이러한 발언이나 행태들은 핵무기를 배경으로 우리를 군사적으로 위협하기 위한 벼랑 끝 전략의 일환으로 해석할 수 있다. 북한은 핵무기 사용 가능성까지 공공연하게 언급하면서 한반도에서의 위기상황을 최대한으로 끌어 올리고 핵보유국으로서의 지위를 인정받고자 하는 것이다.

북한이 ‘선전포고’나 ‘핵무기 사용’과 같은 극단적인 용어를 사용하며 벼랑 끝 전략을 시도하고 있는 만큼 북한의 전략적 의도를 정확하게 파악하고 적절한 대응 전략을 수립하기 위해서는 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략에 대한 철저한 분석과 이해가 선행되어야 한다.

이번에 출간되는 증보판은 기존의 ?김정은 시대 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략? 책자의 편집을 개선하여 독자들의 가독성을 높이고, 부록에 최근 북한이 추진하고 있는 위성발사 의도를 경제적·군사적 측면에서 분석한 ‘북한의 위성발사체 시험 발사 평가’ 보고서를 추가하였다.

모쪼록 이 책자가 북한의 대외전략을 연구하는 많은 연구자들과 전공 학생, 안보관계 종사자들이 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략을 분석하고 이해하는 데 참고자료로 사용되길 기대해 본다.

짧은 기간에도 불구하고 증보판 출간을 위해 수고를 아끼지 않은 박영사 정연환 과장과 편집을 맡아 준 양수정 대리, 그리고 출판을 허락해 준 박영사 관계자 모든 분들께 깊은 감사를 드린다.

2024년 7월

임 성 재

개정증보판을 내면서 3
책을 내면서 5

제 1 장 　서 론 ···························································································13
1. 연구의 필요성 ··························································································· 15
2. 벼랑 끝 전략과 관련 연구들 ····································································· 19
3. 연구 범위와 책의 구성 ·············································································· 25

제 2 장 　벼랑 끝 전략의 이론적 배경 ··························································33
1. 게임이론과 강압외교이론 ········································································· 35
게임이론 35 ◆ 강압외교이론 47 ◆ 분석의 틀 51
2. 벼랑 끝 전략에 대한 이해 ········································································· 52
벼랑 끝 전략의 개념 52 ◆ 벼랑 끝 전략과 배수진 56

제 3 장 　냉전시기 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략 ·······················································63
1. 푸에블로호 나포사건 ················································································ 66
사건개요 66 ◆ 협상전략 및 결과 68 ◆ 협상전략 평가 75
2. 판문점 도끼만행사건 ················································································ 82
사건 개요 82 ◆ 협상전략 및 결과 85 ◆ 협상전략 평가 87

제 4 장 　냉전이후 북한의 벼랑 끝 전략 ·······················································99
1. 1차 북핵 위기 ·························································································· 101
사건개요 101 ◆ 협상전략 및 결과 106 ◆ 협상전략 평가 116
2. 2차 북핵 위기 ························································································ 123
사건 개요 123 ◆ 협상전략 및 결과 124 ◆ 협상전략 평가 128
3. 김정은 시대 핵개발 ················································································· 131
사건 개요 131 ◆ 협상전략 및 결과 133 ◆ 협상전략 평가 135
4. 냉전 전후 사례 비교 분석 ······································································· 139

제 5 장 　북한 벼랑 끝 전략의 성립조건과 속성 ··········································149
1. 벼랑 끝 전략의 성립조건 ········································································ 151
대내적 배경 152 ◆ 대외적 배경 161
2. 벼랑 끝 전략의 작동방식 ········································································ 166
단계적 위기 조성 166 ◆ 전략 선택의 유연성 171
3. 북한 벼랑 끝 전략의 특징 ······································································· 176
목표의 변화 176 ◆ 삼자 간 치킨게임 179 ◆ 전략적 한계 182

제 6 장 　김정은 시대 벼랑 끝 전략 전망 ····················································199
1. 핵동결 협상 ····························································································· 201
2. 미사일 발사 ····························································································· 206

제 7 장 　결 론 ························································································213

❙　부 록 ··········································································································· 225
부록 1. 미국의 푸에블로호 관련 사과문 ····················································· 227
부록 2. 김일성의 판문점도끼만행 관련 통지문 ·········································· 228
부록 3. ◆북 ‧ 미 제네바 합의문◆ ································································ 229
부록 4. ◆제4차 6자회담 공동성명(9.19공동성명)｣(2005.9.19., 베이징) ··· 233
부록 5. 미북 싱가포르 정상회담 공동성명(2018.6.12., 싱가포르) ············· 236
부록 6. 북한의 핵개발 주요일지 ································································· 238
부록 7. 북한의 위성발사체 시험 발사 평가 ················································ 241

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